USD/RUB: Rouble to gradually weaken in the year ahead – MUFG

The rouble has been consolidating within a relatively narrow range over the summer with USD/RUB trading just above the 60.00 level. Economists at MUFG Bank expect the RUB to move downward in 2023.

RUB has benefitted from record current account surpluses 

“The rouble is continuing to derive support from higher energy prices. Russia has already reduced the supply of natural gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to around 20% of full capacity. Higher energy prices have helped Russia to post record trade surpluses this year.”

“The CBR has now more than fully reversed the initial emergency rate hike delivered just after the Ukraine conflict started. It sends a further clear signal that the CBR its now more concerned about disinflation risks including those posed by a stronger rouble. However, we do not expect lower yields in Russia to trigger a significantly weaker rouble while capital controls remain in place limiting outflows.” 

“Beyond the near-term, we expect the rouble to gradually weaken in the year ahead.”