EUR/HUF to advance nicely as disagreements with the EU tend to put pressure on the forint – Commerzbank

EUR/HUF has climbed as far as 410. Economists at Commerzbank expect the Hungarian forint to continue weakening.

Forint continues to struggle

“As inflation is not yet showing any signs of having peaked the MNB now has to stay its course. Any doubts on the part of the market that it might become less restrictive would put additional pressure on HUF and in the end probably force the MNB to hike its key rate anyway – at the expense of its credibility.”

“Politics might provide additional headwinds. The Hungarian government’s reply to the EU’s request for action on the rule of law, for which the deadline was yesterday, might cause the EU to withhold important funds in the end, which would hit Hungary hard. Regardless of the financial risks, disagreements with the EU tend to put pressure on the forint.”