USD/PHP to edge higher towards 52.90 by year-end – ANZ

The Philippine peso came under pressure as the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused energy prices to spike and triggered negative risk sentiment worldwide. Economists at ANZ Bank expect the PHP to suffer further losses and forecast the USD/PHP pair at 52.90 by end-2022.

Expanding current account deficit poses a drag on the peso

“Over 2022, an expanding current account deficit on the back of rising imports will pose a drag on the peso.” 

“The Philippines will also hold its presidential elections in May, the period preceding which is typically marked by higher infrastructure-related imports and volatility in PHP.”

“Even though several factors will support the peso, the positive effects will likely be offset by the risks stemming from US monetary policy tightening, geopolitical risks, and high import prices.” 

“We forecast the PHP to weaken towards 52.90 at the end of 2022.”