USD/CAD to continue its move downward to the 1.22 level by mid-2022 – Scotiabank

Economists at Scotiabank forecast USD/CAD at 1.20 by mid-2022. They have upgraded their Bank of Canada expectations and see the BoC hiking 100bps next year.

BoC tightening expectations upgraded

“Higher than expected Canadian inflation data yesterday and perhaps even our own, upgraded forecasts for the BoC (we now expect 100bps of tightening in H2 next year and a further 100bps in 2023) have served to bolster market confidence in monetary policy tightening risks in Canada.”

“We expect the CAD the strengthen a little more in the medium-term, reaching 1.20 in H2 next year, and to stay stronger for a little longer as a consequence of our upgraded BoC forecast.”

“We look for the CAD to retain a firm undertone over the next few days but more cautious trading could develop ahead of Thursday’s policy decision.”