Balance of risks leans towards a more hawkish FOMC outcome – TDS

Previewing next week's FOMC policy meeting, TD Securities analysts said that they expect policymakers to note that they are "almost ready to taper."

Key quotes

"We expect a formal announcement in December, not November, but will reassess after the meeting. While median 2022-23 dot-plot projections will likely be unchanged, the math makes any changes more likely to be up than down. Median inflation/growth projections for 2021 will have to be raised/cut."

"While we think the FX reaction should be contained, the balance of risks leans towards a more hawkish outcome especially given the low bar to shift the median dot-plot higher. From a risk/reward perspective, that favors some modest USD upside and a challenge for the traditional funders."