ECB Survey sees 2021 GDP growth at 4.2% vs 4.4% previous

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2021 showed a downward revision to the real GDP expectations for this year and upward in 2022, implying a further delay in recovery.

Additional findings

“HICP inflation expectations stood at 1.6%, 1.3% and 1.5% for 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively. Compared with the previous round for the first quarter of 2021, these were revised upward by 0.7 percentage points for 2021 but unchanged for 2022 and 2023.” 

“The expectations imply a return of GDP during 2022 to above its 2019 level. However, this would still be 2.6% lower than the level for 2022 implied in the survey round for the first quarter of 2020, i.e. before Europe was affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19). Average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth were unchanged at 1.4%.”

“The profile of unemployment has been revised down for 2021-23 but longer-term expectations were unchanged at 7.4% for 2025, implying an overall slightly less pronounced downward trajectory.”