USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee to drop towards 76.50 by end-2021 – Standard Chartered

Parul Mittal Sinha, Head of Macro Trading, India and South Asia financial markets at Standard Chartered Plc., believes that the Indian rupee is likely to fall 4% and hit fresh yearly lows towards 76.50 vs. the US dollar by the end of this year, per Bloomberg.

Key quotes

“We expect the rupee to weaken in FY22 amid higher commodity prices, normalizing imports, increasing inflation, and continued central bank intervention.”

“See the rupee losing some of its advantage going ahead. The current account will probably swing to a deficit in the fiscal year starting April, from an estimated surplus of 1.9% of the gross domestic product in the current period as imports gain.”

“Higher oil prices will hurt.”

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bought a net $88 billion of forex in the spot market last year, central bank data showed.

“The pace will be slower in the next fiscal year. Valuation-adjusted FX asset accumulation has dropped to $4 billion this quarter from $31 billion in the previous three months.”