GBP/USD to rise if Biden's victory pushes Johnson to seal Brexit deal

GBP/USD has fallen off the highs as markets "sell the fact" of Biden's victory while Brexit talks resume and headlines are set to stir sterling, FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam reports.

Key quotes

“The networks, including Republican-leaning Fox News, have called the victory of Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the US Presidential Elections over the weekend. Markets have been pricing in such a call and after extending their gains, some profit-taking is seen. The safe-haven dollar has been under pressure as investors began factoring a delayed result rather than a contested election.”

“Later on, the political focus is likely to shift to two runoff races in Georgia, which are set to determine control of the Senate. If Democratic candidates win both tight elections, they could push through a higher stimulus package.” 

“The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement aimed to keep the border between NI and the Republic of Ireland by creating a different customs regime in NI – separating it from the rest of Britain. Johnson's Internal Market Bill (IMB) knowingly violates the accord and will come before the House of Lords on Monday.” 

“Both sides aim to reach a deal by November 15 – a self-imposed deadline – and the only genuine cutoff date is December 31, when the transition period expires. Brexit headlines are set to rock the pound. While issues remain, officials have expressed optimism. Moreover, Biden's victory could push Johnson to compromise and seal the deal. The PM would probably prefer to start relations on good terms, needed to secure a US-UK trade deal.” 

“Coronavirus is on the backburner but may return to the limelight. US cases are surging – consistently surprising the 100,000 infections/day mark. In the UK, the covid curve is flattening but mortalities are on the rise.”