When is the Canadian jobs report and how could it affect USD/CAD?
Canadian employment details overview
Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish the monthly jobs report for October later this Friday at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus estimates, the Canadian economy is expected to have added 100K jobs during the reported month as compared to September's rise of 378.2K jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 8.8% from 9% previous.
How could the data affect USD/CAD?
Given the simultaneous release of the closely watched US monthly jobs report (NFP), the employment data is unlikely to be a major game-changer for the USD/CAD pair. Moreover, investors' focus will remain glued to the final results of a nail-biting US presidential election. That said, any significant divergence from the expected figures might still produce some short-term trading opportunities.
Ahead of the key releases, the USD/CAD pair was trading with modest gains, albeit remained below a two-month-old ascending trend-line support breakpoint, now turned resistance near the 1.3100 mark. As Dhwani Mehta, Senior Analyst at FXStreet writes: “Upbeat Canadian and US jobs data could bode well for the Canadian dollar.” This, in turn, should prompt some fresh selling and turn the pair vulnerable to aim back towards challenging September monthly swing lows, around the key 1.3000 psychological mark.
Conversely, softer-than-expected data might not be enough to provide any meaningful boost to the major and is more likely to be negated by the prevalent selling bias surrounding the USD. Hence, any meaningful positive move beyond the 1.3100 mark runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly and remain capped ahead of the 1.3200 level.
Key Notes
• Canadian Jobs Preview: COVID-19 second wave to weigh on labor market recovery
• USD/CAD clings to modest recovery gains, stays below 1.3100 mark
• USD/CAD analysis: Selling signals
About the Employment Change
The employment Change released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.