USD/JPY to head towards 104.00 on a sustained break below 105.71 – Commerzbank

USD/JPY is probing the 55-day ma at 105.80 as trades at around 105.65 at the time of writing. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the pair to be contained by the three-month downtrend at 105.71 and targets 104.00.

Key quotes

“USD/JPY is probing the 55-day ma at 105.80 and has seen a slight erosion of the short-term downtrend at 105.71. A negative bias will remain entrenched below here, although we acknowledge that this has yet to provoke failure.”

“The 104.00 support guards the 103.43/78.6% Fibonacci retracement, which is the last defence for the 101.18 March low.”

“Above the 55-day ma, will neutralise the chart. The market will need to regain 107.05, the recent high, to trigger a move to the 200-day ma at 107.51.”