GBP/CNH: Lower but not as bass as in March – ANZ

Economists at ANZ Bank see downside bias in GBP/CNH to 8.40-8.50 in H2 2020, before a rebound through 2021.

Key quotes

“The combination of high business uncertainty, growth slump, sharply rising unemployment, a large twin deficit (current account and budget) will weigh on GBP. Also, the BoE has not ruled out negative interest rates as a policy tool.” 

“Any up-move toward 8.9-9.0 will be a good level to initiate a short position in the cross.”

“On the downside, we do not expect a retest of the last low at 8.12, but 8.40-8.50 is what we expect to see in H2 2020.”