US Durable Goods Orders Preview: USD will retain safety edge as economy sinks

Orders for long-lasting consumer and industrial goods are expected to confirm that a massive retreat in consumption is underway, Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, reports.

Key quotes

“Durable goods orders are forecast to plunge 11.9% in March, the largest drop in six years. Non-defense capital goods orders, a proxy for business spending, are expected to fall 5.7% in their biggest decline since the financial crisis.”

“At the moment projections for consumption and GDP in the second quarter rely on extrapolation from the partial impact in March. For April’s numbers and probably those of May as well, that seems a reasonable basis for speculation, but beyond that the variables depend on facts that are in constant flux.” 

“In the international arena the US dollar will keep its safety status until there is clear evidence not only that the pandemic is ebbing but that the world’s economy can successfully restart.”