US: Initial Jobless Claims to remain extraordinarily high – TDS

While economists at TD Securities think jobless claims have likely passed their apex, they expect the level to remain extraordinarily high.

Key quotes

“We forecast a drop to 5.0mn from 6.6mn this week, but also flag risks to the upside as backlogs may give an additional boost to claims.” 

“We estimate an extra 14.5 million claims relative to the previous trend over the last three weeks, equivalent to 8.8% of the labor force. That number will rise to 19.1mn, or 11.6% of the labor force if our forecast for the upcoming week is realized. “

“We are forecasting a sharp decline in the Philly Fed mfg index from -12.7 to -40 in April.” 

“We also expect the sharp weakening in most of the economic data for March to be extended to housing starts and permits. Our 1200K forecast in starts for March implies a 25% decline.”