Oil: Unlikely double digit cut – TDS

The energy market continues to be whipsawed by potential production cut expectations, strategists at TD Securities apprise.

Key quotes

“The OPEC+ meeting is still set to go ahead tomorrow, with the cartel's analysis indicating demand is set to contract 11.9m bpd in Q2. As such, some delegates have stated a 10m bpd cut is on the table, but they also state no cuts is also a possibility, keeping the range of outcomes very wide.” 

“G20 energy ministers are set to meet on Friday to discuss market stability, and the Texas RRC will meet on April 14th. While all of this does offer some optimism that a cut can be done, it remains unlikely that OPEC+ will cut double digits on their own and without commitments from other key producers such as the US.” 

“With front-month contangos over $5/bbl for WTI, and not much better for Brent, the prospect of rolling long positions becomes extremely expensive and is likely to provide another bearish lean as investment demand and bottom picking flows could very well decrease.”