Conditions laid down by Democrats to allow a vote on USMCA - NBF

While Democrats have publicly pushed for several changes to the deal concerning labour regulations, environmental standards and drug prices, the key deal maker (or breaker) is getting greater enforcement provisions regarding labour standards, according to Angelo Katsoras, analyst at NBF.

Key quotes

"While Mexico did pass labour reforms earlier this year to comply with the USMCA, Democrats worry that Mexico will not enforce these provisions vigorously."

"While both Canada and Mexico have stated that they would not renegotiate the deal, they have nevertheless indicated a willingness to consider certain changes in the form of a side letter."

"Given that the leadership of both parties would like to see the USMCA implemented, our baseline scenario is that the deal will be brought to a vote and approved before the end of the year. However, failure to get the deal approved by next February at the latest would likely leave it in limbo until after the November 2020 presidential elections."