Fed: On hold for now but may be forced to cut again – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts suggest that on the back of the Fed's new 'wait-and-see' approach and the better-than-expected October jobs report, they now expect only one more cut in 3-6M (previously three more cuts) from the US Fed.

Key Quotes

“The timing of the cut is difficult but, as the Fed wants to see how things play out, the March meeting is probably the earliest possibility. Most FOMC members (including the doves) have said they think the current policy stance is appropriate and that it would take a further deterioration of data to make further cuts.”

“We keep a cut in our forecast profile, as we still believe the US economy is more fragile than the Fed believes and that the renewed trade optimism is unlikely to be enough to trigger a rebound in business investments just yet. Most soft indicators on investment intentions signal a further decline in business investments.”

“In our view, we need a more permanent deal for investments to kick off again (we assign a 50% probability of this happening). The world economy also looks fragile, in particular in Europe, despite the early signs of stabilisation in China.”