UK: Decent uptick in wage growth coming? – TD Securities

For the June labour market data for the UK, analysts at TD Securities think that we could see a decent uptick in wage growth, with ex-bonus wage growth rising to 3.9% y/y (market 3.8%), which would be its strongest print since June 2008.

Key Quotes

“We don't expect wage growth to remain at quite lofty levels, and would look for it to come back down to closer to 3.5% y/y for the remainder of the year, but nevertheless, this should be the strongest pace of growth since before the financial crisis.”

“For the unemployment rate, we look for an unchanged print of 3.8% (mkt 3.8%), although see the risks skewed toward a higher (worse) reading.”