Fed: All set to cut rates further – ING

James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, suggests that their current forecast of just one further Fed rate cut in September is looking too cautious as increasing growth risks and inflation risks are looking increasingly to the downside in the wake of the latest trade escalation.

Key Quotes

“With other central banks easing aggressively, this risks exacerbating upside pressure on the US dollar, which could further dampen growth and inflation and add to the pressure on the Fed to ease policy.”

“As such it looks increasingly likely that the Fed will step in with more easing – with two 25bp cuts in either September and October or September and December (our preference). In this regard, the Jackson Hole symposium 22 -24 August will see a lot of Fed discussion on this topic with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s favourite phrase of late that an “ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” likely to crop up again.”

“Though, we continue to doubt that the market will get the four additional rate cuts they are discounting. After all, we think that President Trump wants to be re-elected next year and recognises that a robust economy with rising asset prices is critical for that to happen. We continue to look for a “deal” even if not all of President Trump’s demands are met later this year.”

“Relief in business and markets that trade uncertainty has been lifted and with interest rates globally offering a decent stimulus, may well give President Trump what he needs.”