5 May 2014
What to expect the day ahead? - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, takes a look at the main risk events for this Monday.
Key Quotes
"A busy week of Australian data kicks off with Mar building approvals, TD Apr inflation gauge and Apr services index. None should have a large impact on AUD but the main release is building approvals (11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK). The series posted a shock 16% surge in Sep, setting up falls in four of the next five months (though the one rise was a chunky 6.9%). Consensus is for a 1.5% rise after Feb’s -5%, but the 31% y/y rate this implies looks too high to us. We look for -1.5% m/m."
"Tokyo is closed today for one of the Golden Week holidays. Asia’s calendar holds some interest. China’s markets reopen for the first time this month. At 11:45am Syd/9:45am local we will see the final reading on the HSBC/Markit China manufacturing PMI, with some expecting a nudge up to 48.4 from the flash estimate of 48.3. Indonesia releases Q1 GDP (f/c 5.6% y/y) while Singapore’s April PMI will be released in London trade as usual."
"Markets are closed in London for a bank holiday. The US data highlight is the Apr non-manufacturing ISM, seen rising to 54.1 from 53.1 in Mar. Eurozone Mar PPI is seen remaining down 1.7% y/y while the European Commission publishes its spring economic forecasts."
Key Quotes
"A busy week of Australian data kicks off with Mar building approvals, TD Apr inflation gauge and Apr services index. None should have a large impact on AUD but the main release is building approvals (11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK). The series posted a shock 16% surge in Sep, setting up falls in four of the next five months (though the one rise was a chunky 6.9%). Consensus is for a 1.5% rise after Feb’s -5%, but the 31% y/y rate this implies looks too high to us. We look for -1.5% m/m."
"Tokyo is closed today for one of the Golden Week holidays. Asia’s calendar holds some interest. China’s markets reopen for the first time this month. At 11:45am Syd/9:45am local we will see the final reading on the HSBC/Markit China manufacturing PMI, with some expecting a nudge up to 48.4 from the flash estimate of 48.3. Indonesia releases Q1 GDP (f/c 5.6% y/y) while Singapore’s April PMI will be released in London trade as usual."
"Markets are closed in London for a bank holiday. The US data highlight is the Apr non-manufacturing ISM, seen rising to 54.1 from 53.1 in Mar. Eurozone Mar PPI is seen remaining down 1.7% y/y while the European Commission publishes its spring economic forecasts."