US: Nominal goods trade deficit to widen to $79.4bn in September - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the US nominal goods trade deficit to widen $3.9bn to $79.4bn in September.

Key Quotes

“Goods exports have been weak recently, likely reflecting some moderation in external growth and continued uncertainty around US trade protectionism. However, goods imports have remained strong as stimulative fiscal policy boosts domestic demand. In September, the uncertainty is high due to the imposition of 10% tariffs on roughly $200bn imports from China and subsequent retaliation by China.”

“Many businesses in China and the US may have expedited shipments ahead of the implementation of those tariffs. With an impending deadline of 1 January 2019 when the US tariff rate on the $200bn list increases to 25% from 10%, it is possible that US importers will frontload certain orders of Chinese products to minimize their exposure to the higher rate in Q4.”