US: Important week ahead - Nomura

In view of analysts at Nomura, this week will be important for evaluating the strength of US current economic momentum after somewhat softer-than-expected trade and durable goods data last week and a worsening housing outlook.

Key Quotes

“We expect a solid 180k gain in September nonfarm payroll employment and a healthy 0.3% m-o-m increase in average hourly earnings (AHE) with some upside AHE risk from weak aggregate hours data as a result of Hurricane Florence as aggregate working hours are a denominator of AHE and total compensation, a numerator of AHE tends to be less sensitive to inclement weather.”

“The September AHE data will be important for evaluating whether a stronger trend in wage growth is emerging. However, the potential disruption from Hurricane Florence may add additional noise to the monthly figure.”

“We expect both the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing surveys to moderate slightly while remaining elevated and continue to expect incoming data to be roughly consistent with an economy growing at 3%.”