Canadian: Employment could take a breather in August - NBF

According to National Bank of Canada analysts, It would not be surprising to see the Labor Force Suvery employment take a breather in August following two strong months. The report will be released on Friday.

Key Quotes:

“August’s labour force survey will also attract attention on Friday. Despite a large increase in July, total employment is only up 37K in the first seven months of the year. Indeed, the LFS paints a rather morose picture of the Canadian labour market so far in the year in comparison to the more upbeat SEPH, a survey of establishments. The latter is showing a 190K gain for paid jobs in the 6 months to June, a number that appears more in line with the strength of latest economic data.”

“It would not be surprising to see LFS employment take a breather in August following two strong months. This is in line with our expectation of slower GDP growth in the third quarter. We suspect LFS employment may have been no better than flat in August. If that scenario unfolds, the unemployment rate could rise one tick to 5.9%.”