RBNZ: Market pricing roughly a 50% chance of a rate cut by May 2019 - ANZ

According to analysts at ANZ, after treading water for a week or so, the latest weak business confidence figures of NZ economy provided the short end with another shot in the arm.

Key Quotes

“And how can you blame it, given that the RBNZ Governor was explicit that he sees business confidence as the biggest potential catalyst for a near-term rate cut?”

“The market is now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a cut by May 2019. However, there is only 4bps priced in for November this year. While a cut by then would need the poor data flow to broaden beyond confidence alone, we certainly wouldn’t rule that out right now.”