NBP expected to keep rates on hold this week – BBH

Analysts at BBH highlighted this week’s activity in central banks from the EM space.

Key Quotes

“Reserve Bank of India meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 6.0%.  However, a small handful of analysts see a 25 bp hike to 6.25%.  CPI rose 4.6% y/y in April, as inflation remains in the upper half of the 2-6% target range.  As such, we see a small chance of a hawkish surprise”. 

“National Bank of Poland meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%.  CPI rose 1.7% y/y in May, near the bottom of the 1.5-3.5% target range.  As such, we see the bank sticking with its forward guidance of no hikes through 2019”. 

“Peru central bank meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 2.75%.  CPI rose 0.9% y/y in May, below the 1-3% target range.  As such, we see a small chance of a dovish surprise”.