26 Mar 2014
Positive expectations on US data ahead - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted what is in store for the day ahead from the US session.
Key Quotes:
“Today we have a Fed speaker in Hong Kong, Bullard, again talking on monetary policy. (Local real estate agents and investors will no doubt be paying very close heed to his words, perhaps through gritted teeth)”.
“The key data release today is the monthly US durable goods orders report for February. As stressed every month, this is a real ‘data onion’, with layer after layer that needs to be peeled away to find out what the underlying message is (which, like the real onion, also brings a tear to the eye, but is ultimately satisfying)”.
“Expectations for the headline are a 0.8% MoM rise after a -1.0% print in the previous month; ex-transportation consensus is a 0.3% rise; capital goods orders excluding the defence sector and aircraft are meanwhile seen up 0.5%; and actual goods shipped on that basis are expected up 0.8%, reversing a revised 1.0% fall in January. All in all, the message is that the US is still waiting for a major pick-up in investment spending in this recovery (which given that we have a shale gas boom, and that the recovery itself is no spring chicken at five years old, is quite remarkable)”.
“We also see the US Markit PMI for the services sector, as well as the composite index, where expectations are for an increase to 54.0 from 53.3 (there is no consensus for the composite reading)”.
Key Quotes:
“Today we have a Fed speaker in Hong Kong, Bullard, again talking on monetary policy. (Local real estate agents and investors will no doubt be paying very close heed to his words, perhaps through gritted teeth)”.
“The key data release today is the monthly US durable goods orders report for February. As stressed every month, this is a real ‘data onion’, with layer after layer that needs to be peeled away to find out what the underlying message is (which, like the real onion, also brings a tear to the eye, but is ultimately satisfying)”.
“Expectations for the headline are a 0.8% MoM rise after a -1.0% print in the previous month; ex-transportation consensus is a 0.3% rise; capital goods orders excluding the defence sector and aircraft are meanwhile seen up 0.5%; and actual goods shipped on that basis are expected up 0.8%, reversing a revised 1.0% fall in January. All in all, the message is that the US is still waiting for a major pick-up in investment spending in this recovery (which given that we have a shale gas boom, and that the recovery itself is no spring chicken at five years old, is quite remarkable)”.
“We also see the US Markit PMI for the services sector, as well as the composite index, where expectations are for an increase to 54.0 from 53.3 (there is no consensus for the composite reading)”.