NZ: Monthly net migrant inflows picked up - ANZ

New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted net migration inflows picked up to 5,480 in March, following a weak February print, notes Miles Workamn, Economist at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“Annual net inflows are now sitting at 68,000, down from a peak of 72,400 in July last year. Overall, March figures are consistent with our expectations for an ongoing, gradual easing.”

“Long-term arrivals partially rebounded by 680 to 10,860 (sa) after hitting a 3-year low last month. The rebound was driven by non-New Zealand and non-Australian citizens, which fell sharply last month. The number of New Zealand citizen arrivals remains broadly flat.  Arrivals on residency visas continued to trend downwards (-13% y/y) which was more than offset by higher work visas. Student visas slipped a touch (-0.1% y/y).”

“Monthly long-term departures rose slightly to 5,380 (sa). The number of departures of non-New Zealand and non-Australian citizens continues to trend higher, likely a natural cycling effect of earlier strong arrivals. However, the number of departures of New Zealand citizens remains broadly flat speaking to the strength of the local labour market. Annual net migration with Australia is stable at roughly zero (which admittedly is a historically strong level).”

Strong migration-led population growth has been a key driver of economic activity recently. Today’s release provides further evidence that the migration cycle is gradually easing, and with it, the ‘more-bums-on-seats’ growth impulse. Likewise, given capacity constraints it is difficult to foresee tourism pulling away in a similar fashion to recent years. But there is still room for expansion, particularly on the ‘value-added’ side.”