US: Consumer confidence and home price index in focus – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a modest increase to 132.0 in US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in March, from a high reading of 130.8 in February.

Key Quotes

“The ongoing strength in consumer optimism has been partly fueled by the solid labor market and financial gains in the household sector. The preliminary March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index improved further to 102.0, the highest reading since January 2004. However, incoming data on personal spending such as January and February retail sales have been mixed. Although we remain optimistic on consumer spending in 2018, incoming data appear to widen the dichotomy between consumer spending and sentiment.”

“Case-Shiller home price index: Home prices as measured by the CaseShiller composite 20-city index increased 6.3% y-o-y in December, down from 6.4% in the previous month. We expect this measure to continue to rise steadily in the near term. Existing home sales fell in January to a level below our and markets' expectations, partly driven by insufficient inventory of housing for sale. Lean inventory likely put an upward pressure on home prices in the month.”