EUR/AUD trading rough near 1.59 on the Italian election

  • The EUR/AUD chopping as the Italian election shows no clear winner.
  • Merkel's CDU/CSU coalition with SPD succeeds in party voting.
  • The RBA rate statement due Tuesday, the GDP figures to come on Wednesday.

The EUR/AUD is whipping amidst the Italian election uncertainty, currently trading to the downside of 1.5900 in Tokyo markets.

The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement is currently in the lead, with Silvio Berlusconi's hyper-conservative allies taking up the remainder of the popular vote; the centrist ruling left is being abandoned wholesale by the Italian voting public, with a massive swing underway to the far right and populist movements. 

Angela Merkel's successful bid to form a coalition government between her ruling CDU/CSU party and the SPD. With almost 80% of the SPD's registered voters turning out over the weekend and voting 66% in favour of the coalition, Merkel's new cabinet will take shape next week and could provide a much-needed base of support for the Euro as the Italian elections continue to weigh on the currency, and a slew of Markit PMI figures for the Eurozone due for Monday, beginning with the Spanish Services PMI at 08:15 GMT, then the Italian, French, German, and Eurozone-wide PMIs from 08:45 to 09:00.

The Aussie continues to hold a restrained stance as economic conditions for the island continent to the middle, with market analysts widely expecting the AUD to soften into 2018 and 2019, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold off on rate increases over the same period; The RBA comes out with their Interest Rate Decision Tuesday at 03:30 GMT, but with markets already pricing in a repeat of the central bank`s monthly rhetoric, the mover is likely to be Aussie GDP figures early Wednesday at 00:30.

EUR/AUD Technicals

The Euro continues to climb against the retreating Aussie, and daily candles have the pair trading at two-year highs, while the H4 chart has the pair finally breaking to the upside of a four-week consolidation period. Intraday support is coming from 1.5787 and 1.5715, with resistance thin up top from 1.5922 to 1.6050.

 

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