EUR/USD rallies seen faltering around 1.2385 – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, believes occasional bullish attempts should meet resistance around 1.2385.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD as we suspected the erosion of the 20 day ma triggered another sell off. Last week the market saw a minor break to a new high, which was not sustained and the new high has been accompanied by a divergence of the daily and weekly RSI. In addition Fridays price action was a key day reversal which suggests a failure move. Intraday rallies are indicated to fail circa 1.2385, we may see a tiny rebound intraday as the 60 minute RSI has diverged”.

“Nearby support is now 1.2206/1.2165, the 18th January low, this guards the 2017-2018 uptrend, which lies at 1.2044 and a close below here will be needed to confirm the end of the move higher”.

“Above the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2680 would target 1.3190 the 50% retracement of the move down from 2008”.