EUR/USD rallies expected to fail around 1.2410 – Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional bullish attempts in the pair are likely to meet strong resistance in the 1.2410 area.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD sold off to and is recovering from the 20 day ma at 1.2325. Intraday Elliott wave counts stay negative and suggest that rallies will struggle 1.2410 for another leg lower. The market recently failed at long term Fibonacci resistance at 1.2517/38 and we believe that following a divergence of the weekly and daily RSI that the market has topped. The slide below 1.2335 (last weeks low) should be enough to trigger a sell off to the January 18 low at 1.2165 and, more importantly, the August and September highs at 1.2092/70”.

“Above 1.2538 the recent high will test the 2008- 2018 resistance line at 1.2680”.