EUR/USD - Close below 1.1712 would negate upside pressure - Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank says a dip below 1.1712 would confirm bullish invalidation.

Key quotes

EUR/USD last week sold off to and recovered from the 1.1712 21st November low. The market is sidelined above here. A close below 1.1712 the recent low should be enough to negate upside pressure and allow for slippage back to the 1.1553 7th November low. We also note hefty resistance, which extends from 1.1880 to the 1.1976/78.6% retracement. Initial resistance lies at 1.1880 the 12th October high and while capped here a negative bias will remain.

Where are we wrong? The Fibonacci retracement at 1.1976 is regarded as the last defence for the 1.2092 September high.

Short-Term Trend (1-3 weeks): Neutralised

Long-term trend (1-3 months): Neutral to positive it is possible that the move to 1.1553 as the end of an ‘a-b-c correction then the longer term risk is still on the topside.