EUR/USD rallies should fail in the 1.1817/36 band – Commerzbank

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional up ticks in spot should struggle in the 1.1817/36 area.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD’s outlook remains negative following the recent erosion of the 5 month uptrend and the 1.1836/23 September lows and we look for further weakness initially to the 1.1662 August low and then the midJune high at 1.1296 and the more important 1.1110 end of May low. Very near term the market is bouncing off the 200 week ma at 1.1721, however intraday rallies should fail in the 1.1817/36 region, the 55 day ma and late August and mid-September lows”.

“Above 1.2092 would target the 50% retracement from the move down from the 2014 high at 1.2168 and the 1.2372 200 month ma, but if seen, that is expected to hold”.