CME Group FedWatch's December hike probability advanced to 47%

CME Group FedWatch tool, which calculates unconditional probabilities of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes to generate a binary probability tree, today shows that the markets are pricing a 47% probability of a December rate hike. Today's robust employment data from the United States boosted the US Dollar Index and helped the U.S. Treasury yields rally, pushing the December rate hike probability to 47% from 42.8%.

At the moment, the 10-year T-bond is at 2.27%, up 1.85% while the 2-year reference is at 1.36%, adding more than 1% on the day. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index is gaining 0.83% at 93.46, marching towards a positive weekly close after three straight weeks of heavy losses.

• US: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July
• US: Goods and services deficit was $43.6 billion in June, down $2.7 billion from May