AUD/USD: better bid while still above 0.7870? Awaiting next key catalysts this week

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7964, down -0.02% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7971 and low at 0.7960.

AUD/USD is consolidated in early Asian trade ahead of the events later in the shift and week where interest is mainly on tomorrow's RBA Statement and its forecast profiles. However, ahead of that today is the ABS trade balance and the AiG services PMI; The market consensus looks for a $1.8bn trade surplus in the trade data. AUD/USD has been struggling to stay above water on the 0.80 handle but analysts at Westpac explained that the downside is also limited by USD weakness. However, it might be the nonfarm payrolls that give the pair the biggest ride this week. 

What does the ADP employment result mean for nonfarm payrolls? - Nomura

U.S. dollar may have entered multi-year downtrend - Wells Fargo

AUD/USD 1-3 month: 

The analysts at Westpac explained that much of AUD/USD's gains have been driven by broad US dollar weakness. "But there has also been a partial recovery in Australia's key commodity prices, after very steep declines in April and May. However, beyond multi-week gains, a firmly on hold RBA is likely to keep a lid on AUD/USD," noted the analysts. 

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD: Selling rallies with a SL above 0.8000

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that from a technical point of view, the pair is neutral in the short term. "In the 4 hours chart, the price stands a handful of pips below a flat 20 SMA, while technical indicators head nowhere, stuck around their mid-lines. The key support comes at 0.7870, with the bearish potential most likely increasing on a break below it," noted Bednarik.