UK: Q2 GDP to come in at 0.3% q/q - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for UK’s Q2 GDP to come in at 0.3% q/q, in line with consensus but below the BoE’s 0.4% q/q forecast from June.

Key Quotes

“Although we think that the risks here lie to the downside, especially as car registrations fell 25% q/q on tax changes. After a robust 2016H2, UK economic growth has switched into a lower gear, and is now growing more consistently below its potential rate. This should leave the BoE firmly on hold next week, even if there are still a couple of MPC dissenters who favour a rate hike, as there’s still too much uncertainty over how consumer spending is likely to hold up through the squeeze in real incomes.”