BoC: Market pricing roughly 70% probability of rate hike at July 12 meeting – Deutsche Bank

In Canada, the OIS market is now pricing a roughly 70% probability of the BoC hiking at the July 12 meeting, up from a little over 6% the day after the May 24 policy meeting and around 30% the day after Deputy Governor Wilkins' speech on June 12, which sparked the dramatical reversal in market expectations, points out research team at Deutsche Bank.

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“While we had been forecasting a BoC move in 2017 for some time, July still seems too early. We continue to expect Poloz to hike in Q4, most likely at the October 25 meeting. However, we are cognizant of the fact that the market is now handing them the chance to go in two weeks.”