When is UK Jobs and how could affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the number of people seeking jobless benefits decreased by 10.0k in the three months to May, compared to a sharper increase of 19.4k booked in the three months to April.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.6% during the period. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to March are expected to remain steady at 2.4%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are expected to tick lower to 2.0%.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

 Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 60 pips in deviations up to 2 to -4, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 85 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

A bigger-than expected drop in the claimant count combined with an upside surprise in the average earnings could provide extra legs to the latest move higher in cable, prompting the rate to rise back above 1.2800, beyond which 1.2850-55 (horizontal resistance) could be tested en route 1.2900.

On the flip side, should the data disappoint, we could see the GBP/USD pair falling back below 1.2700 levels, opening doors for a test of 1.2620 (multi-week low). A subsequent break below the last, next support lies at 1.2569 (200-DMA).

Key notes

UK: Unemployment rate to come in unchanged at 4.6% for April - TDS

Today we get the UK labour market data April/May and markets are looking for the unemployment rate to come in unchanged at 4.6% for April, but analysts at TDS think that it could slip to 4.5% instead as the higher Jan reading of 4.73% falls out of the 3m MA.

About UK jobs

The Claimant Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).