4 Feb 2014
Flash: EUR/USD downtrend has not been confirmed yet - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Despite looking weak, the expected EUR/USD downtrend has not been confirmed yet, with a breaks below 1.3507 and 1.3436 still required, notes Thomas Anthonj, FX Strategist at JP Morgan.
Key Quotes
"Provided we have really seen a big countertrend rally top at 1.3893 and a minor wave 1 low at 1.3507 we are still dealing with the uncertainty of potentially missing another corrective leg up to 1.3802 (minor 76.4 %) as long as key support at 1.3507/06 (last low/daily Ichimoku-lagging) is not taken out."
"Below the latter though, confidence would grow that a broader downtrend is on its way which would however require final confirmation via breaks below key support at 1.3436/1.3378 (minor 76.4 %/200 DMA)."
"Below the latter though, we’d see the B-wave top at 1.3893 as confirmed which would expose 1.3295, 1.3169/04 and 1.3024 (pivot/weekly trend/pivot/76.4 % on higher scale) next. Ultimately though we expect weekly trend line support at 1.2834 to give way in favor of a test of the key-T-junction on big scale at 1.2479 (76.4 %)."
Key Quotes
"Provided we have really seen a big countertrend rally top at 1.3893 and a minor wave 1 low at 1.3507 we are still dealing with the uncertainty of potentially missing another corrective leg up to 1.3802 (minor 76.4 %) as long as key support at 1.3507/06 (last low/daily Ichimoku-lagging) is not taken out."
"Below the latter though, confidence would grow that a broader downtrend is on its way which would however require final confirmation via breaks below key support at 1.3436/1.3378 (minor 76.4 %/200 DMA)."
"Below the latter though, we’d see the B-wave top at 1.3893 as confirmed which would expose 1.3295, 1.3169/04 and 1.3024 (pivot/weekly trend/pivot/76.4 % on higher scale) next. Ultimately though we expect weekly trend line support at 1.2834 to give way in favor of a test of the key-T-junction on big scale at 1.2479 (76.4 %)."