France: Attention now turns to the legislative elections – Goldman Sachs

Alain Durré, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, points out that in France, Emmanuel Macron, the independent candidate of the centrist political movement En Marche! (Onwards!), won the second-round run-off of the Presidential election with around 65.9% of the vote.

Key Quotes

“The candidate of the far-right Eurosceptic Front National party, Marine Le Pen, won around 34.1%. Ms. Le Pen has now acknowledged her defeat against Mr. Macron, who will thus become the new French President, with a mandate of five years.”

“The participation rate was widely expected to be smaller than in the first round of the election (at 75% compared with 78.7%), implying around 21mln and 10.5mln votes respectively for Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen.”

“This outcome is broadly consistent with the latest set of opinion polls, which were indicative of a tight race between Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Macron (with a lead of close to 23%).”

“Markets had already reacted positively to the results of the first round of the Presidential election (on Sunday, 23 April). And since we believe a Macron presidency has been embedded in market pricing since then, we do not expect his victory in run-off to have a significant impact on markets.”

“The attention now turns to the legislative elections

In order for President-elect Macron to implement the programme he set out in his election manifesto, he will need to obtain a parliamentary majority in the forthcoming legislative elections. The first and the second round of these elections will take place on 11 and 18 June 2017.”