US: Government shutdown looming - TDS

In view of the analysts at TDS, US Congress must pass a continuing resolution (CR) bill by April 28 in order to renew the government’s ability to continue spending, or else risk a government shutdown.

Key Quotes

“Note that this is different from the debt ceiling, for which the drop dead date is likely to occur in late September or early October. The negotiation process for the CR is being complicated by opposing priorities laid out by conservative Republicans, Democrats, and the White House. Democrats have threatened to block the passage of any CR if it contains amendments defunding Planned Parenthood, funding the creation of a “deportation service” or the building of a border wall with Mexico. President Trump has similarly asked Congress to cut funds from discretionary spending for the current fiscal year (adding it to military spending), which Democrats oppose.”

“There are several scenarios worth noting: 

• 11th-Hour Deal: This is the most likely scenario as negotiations go down to the wire on April 28th. Congress returned from recess on Monday and we don’t see any side backing down from the demands until the very end.  
• Shutdown: Given the contention surrounding the CR, a brief shutdown is possible. The shutdown could be driven both by the Freedom Caucus if they refuse to work with the rest of the Republican party or by Democrats, who may be motivated to blame the Republicans for the shutdown. 
• Clean CR well ahead of time: With the two sides being far apart on the key issues, this is particularly unlikely as time is already running out.”