EU’s negotiation stance on Brexit – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank note that according to the EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, the UK and EU need to find a solution to the 1. ‘Divorce bill’ (which EU estimates to be around EUR60bn), 2. Citizens’ rights (both UK citizens living in EU and EU citizens living in the UK) and 3. External borders (Ireland vs Northern Ireland) before moving on to discuss the future relationship.

Key Quotes

“Barnier writes ‘If we cannot resolve these three significant uncertainties at an early stage, we run the risk of failure’.”

“The EU and UK need to agree on an ‘orderly withdrawal of the UK before negotiating any future trade deal’.”

“Previously he said that (1) EU27 will be united, (2) the UK cannot get a deal which is better than full membership, (3) the UK cannot get full access to the single market if it does not accept the four freedoms (free movement of goods, services, capital and people). Cherry picking is not an option.”

“Donald Tusk is set to publish draft Brexit guidelines ‘within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50’. Guidelines expected to reflect Barnier’s three points.”