US Q1 GDP tracking estimate has been lowered - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered their GDP Q1 tracking update.

Key Quotes:

"Good trade balance was mostly in line with expectations, but February wholesale and retail inventories (released with good trade data via the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators Report) were weaker than expected, implying less inventory investment in Q1. Thus, our Q1 GDP tracking estimate has been lowered by 0.2pp to 1.1% from 1.3%. 

Moreover, downward revisions to wholesale and retail inventories in prior months in Q4 suggest inventory investment was weaker than the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) had previously estimated. Reflecting these revisions, we are lowering our forecast for the BEA’s third (final) estimate of Q4 GDP growth by 0.1pp to 1.9% from 2.0%, which implies that the BEA would leave the Q4 GDP growth unrevised in the third estimate."