20 Jan 2014
Flash: EUR/USD still seen as defining a range - ANZ
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research, Asia at ANZ notes that the possibility of a EUR/USD push into the 1.40-1.45 area should not be ignored, but recent failure to breach declining resistance (in the 1.3885-00 area) suggests that range resistance may have already been “redefined”.
Key Quotes
“The overlapping of interim legs within the gains from 1.2750-55 highlights the risk that these gains are not dynamic. However, a break of the series of rising lows (rising support) is needed to suggest a turn in trend.”
“A sharp fall through 1.3525 would increase the risk of the uptrend unravelling (for a slide back to 1.3200). The uptrend off 1.2755 is now under threat and a close below 1.3520-25 could undermine the potential to test 1.3960, let alone trigger moves into the 1.40-1.45 range during 2014.”
“Effectively EUR/USD needs to break an interim 1.3525-1.3750 range to determine whether the frustratingly overlapping uptrend can remain in play (above 1.3750) or whether the trend has completed and so defined 1.3895 as the top of a broad range off the 2012 crisis low of 1.2030.”
“The current bias is for support to fail, but for slippage to remain relatively contained and to grind, rather than crunch, into the 1.3200-1.3325 area.”
Key Quotes
“The overlapping of interim legs within the gains from 1.2750-55 highlights the risk that these gains are not dynamic. However, a break of the series of rising lows (rising support) is needed to suggest a turn in trend.”
“A sharp fall through 1.3525 would increase the risk of the uptrend unravelling (for a slide back to 1.3200). The uptrend off 1.2755 is now under threat and a close below 1.3520-25 could undermine the potential to test 1.3960, let alone trigger moves into the 1.40-1.45 range during 2014.”
“Effectively EUR/USD needs to break an interim 1.3525-1.3750 range to determine whether the frustratingly overlapping uptrend can remain in play (above 1.3750) or whether the trend has completed and so defined 1.3895 as the top of a broad range off the 2012 crisis low of 1.2030.”
“The current bias is for support to fail, but for slippage to remain relatively contained and to grind, rather than crunch, into the 1.3200-1.3325 area.”