When are the RBA minutes and how could they affect AUD/USD?

Feb RBA Minutes Overview

The Feb RBA minutes is due later today at 12.30GMT. The consensus is that the minutes will mirror the RBA's recent bullish rhetoric of the economy but are released, which should mirror recent upbeat commentary. 

How could the RBA Minutes affect AUD/USD?

The Australian dollar has been on the rampage this year so far while markets look for yield, disappointed at Trump's delay in implementing pro-business reforms leading to an unwind of the late 2016 long dollar reflation trade. The RBA has been less of a driver so far this year as maintaining the status quo while coal and iron ore have been an underlying supportive factor to the Aussie as well. The economic data for Q4 and Q1 should improve, according to analysts at Westpac and further bullish rhetoric in the minutes could provide demand for the Aussie opening a case for territory back onto the 0.77 handle. However, with the SOMP around the corner, movements and momentum in either direction maybe limited. The biggest risk would be jawboning of the currency's strength and any surprise bearish or dovish comments that could lead to a relatively strong sell-off in the Aussie, brekaing the 4hr 50 sma at 0.7670 and eyeing the 0.7600 psychological level and January highs/resistance of 0.7608.

Key Notes

AUD/USD supported by 4hr 50 sma and awaits Central Bank minutes

Analysts at ANZ explained that they expect there will be little to un-nerve financial markets in this morning’s release of the minutes from the RBA’s February board meeting. "The tone of the post-meeting statement was broadly unchanged and the minutes have been superseded by the SoMP. Since then the bounce in January business conditions and confidence, combined with the robust global backdrop, support a solid economic outlook. As always, commentary around the housing market in the minutes will be important, particularly ahead of Governor Lowe’s parliamentary testimony on Friday and the intensifying debate around housing affordability."

About the RBA Minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.