UK: Supreme Court decision on Article 50 in focus – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets notes that in the UK, the Supreme Court will deliver the outcome of the appeal by the government on the previous decision of the High Court to rule that parliament must vote before Article 50 is triggered (the start of the formal process for leaving the EU).

Key Quotes

“The decision will be published at 9.30am. Expectations seem to have coalesced around the view that the government will lose its appeal and the original ruling of the High Court will stand. This will require parliamentary votes to take place before the end of March if Theresa May’s stated timetable for Brexit is to remain on track.”

“As a non-binding vote in the House of Commons to support invoking Article 50 by 31 March 2017 was carried easily last month, the Supreme Court decision shouldn’t really cause too much market turbulence. Our central case is that the Prime Minister is in a position to trigger Article 50 by March 2017 as planned, but it is possible that the parliamentary process is complicated by opposition amendments and reaction could be sensitive to pronouncements from the Supreme Court on the appropriate form of parliamentary approval.”