China: Q4 GDP likely to print 6.8% - TDS

Research Team at TDS expects Chinese Q4 GDP to print 6.8% while the market consensus point towards a 6.7% print. 

Key Quotes

“Consensus is overwhelmingly skewed towards another quarterly 6.7% print (33/44) with few prepared to pick an outlier, not surprising with retail sales and IP in Oct/Nov suggesting more of the same GDP growth.  However, we see upside risks via the decent jump in Dec qtr PMIs compared with Sep qtr, for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing.  The Bloomberg GDP proxy (for what it’s worth, based on ‘hard’ activity indicators) is 7%, and tends to be more accurate for the Dec qtr compared with the other quarters, also hinting at upside risk.  We see slight upside for Dec retail sales and IP, at +11% and +6.3% respectively.”