13 Jan 2014
Flash: USD/JPY back to 102.50? - Societe Generale
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale has pencilled into a pullback for USD/JPY to potentially reach 102.50.
Key Quotes
"The pattern in Q4 was for Treasury investors to sell into any signs of strength as the ‘great rotation' saw equity holdings boosted and bond holdings pared back."
"As I wrote on Friday, the bias from survey respondents with 10-year yields at 3% was to buy dips and chase rallies."
"Well, they chased the rally and with soft retails sales, well-behaved CPI ahead this week while secular stagnationists deluge us with their views, we just need to wait it out and see how far this goes."
"10s failed to break below 2.5% on the ‘no-taper' in October but we probably won't see the market go that far. 2.75% 10yr yields look a more realistic low between now and the next jobs number."
"Similarly, we are pencilling in 0.92 for AUD/USD and 102.50 (though the USD/JPY uptrend is supported by the 200-day moving average, and that's all the way back at 99.70)."
Key Quotes
"The pattern in Q4 was for Treasury investors to sell into any signs of strength as the ‘great rotation' saw equity holdings boosted and bond holdings pared back."
"As I wrote on Friday, the bias from survey respondents with 10-year yields at 3% was to buy dips and chase rallies."
"Well, they chased the rally and with soft retails sales, well-behaved CPI ahead this week while secular stagnationists deluge us with their views, we just need to wait it out and see how far this goes."
"10s failed to break below 2.5% on the ‘no-taper' in October but we probably won't see the market go that far. 2.75% 10yr yields look a more realistic low between now and the next jobs number."
"Similarly, we are pencilling in 0.92 for AUD/USD and 102.50 (though the USD/JPY uptrend is supported by the 200-day moving average, and that's all the way back at 99.70)."