EM Outlook 2017: Better growth, weaker currencies and higher yields - Commerzbank

Research Team at Commerzbank suggests that the EM growth looks to have bottomed and they think 2017 will see increasing levels of aggregate growth.

Key Quotes

“This is largely a base effect story and does not indicate a return to pre-crisis levels of economic growth.”

“In FX space we think that USD strength will put EM currencies on the back foot. We expect weakness but not capitulation, as EM currencies illustrate large improvements in external balances and real interest rates.”

“Deflationary concerns declined in recent months but shifting DM term-premia pose risks for long end yields in hard and local currency terms.”