German retail sales, M3 money supply and loan growth in focus – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that today, German retail sales figures for October are due to be released and after we have seen two consecutive monthly declines in August and September and Danske Bank expects a bounce back in October.

Key Quotes

“However, the overall picture indicates weakening private consumption in Europe in 2017. The real wage is weakening as nominal wage growth remains constant while inflation is rising. Thus, despite a bounce back in October, we expect retail sales figures to remain somewhat weaker looking ahead.”

“Monday also brings M3 money supply growth and loan growth for October. We estimate M3 money growth will show a continuation in the 5% y/y growth figure for October. Loan growth, however, may be heading towards a slowdown. Despite lying at 1.8% y/y since June, the decline in European bank equities may indicate a slowdown in loan growth. We therefore see a risk that loan growth could be lower in the remainder of 2016.”