AUD: The week ahead – ANZ

Research Team at ANZ, suggests that on the international data front, PMI surveys across China, the euro area, and the US will provide a pulse on global activity through November for the AUD.

Key Quotes

“We do not expect to see a material acceleration or slowing in these data, and as such do not think that there will be much of an impact on the AUD.”

“We will also get an update on price pressures in the euro area (CPI) and the US (PCE). In the euro area, both headline and core inflation rates will likely remain weak, supporting the view that QE will be extended at the December meeting. This adds to the case for downside to the euro, although we note that political uncertainty has been a more important driver of the euro recently.  On that note, the market will likely remain focused on the upcoming referendum in Italy and the election in Austria in early December.”

“In Australia, the data flow remains light, but Q3 capex data next week are worth watching to get an update on private sector investment intentions. We know from the business surveys that these will likely remain tepid - reinforcing the view that the RBA will likely remain on the sidelines.”

“Market attention may also start to turn to US non-farm payrolls (released Friday 2 December). Here, the key focus will be on wages. Another solid wages print would reinforce an accelerating core inflation pulse and could drive the USD higher.”